Backcountry Avalanche Forecast Central Sierra Nevada
Sierra Avalanche Center
www.sierraavalanchecenter.org
- Issued
- Saturday, December 9, 2023 - 7:00AM
- Expires
- Sunday, December 10, 2023 - 7:00AM
- Author
- Andy Anderson
The Bottom Line
Triggering an avalanche remains possible today where slabs of wind-drifted snow exist and where old, weak snow lurks below the recent snow. Some avalanches could get triggered low on the slope, below traditional avalanche start zones. In addition, if an avalanche does occur, serious trauma could result in the current rocky, shallow snowpack. Traveling on lower-angle slopes not connected to avalanche terrain can reduce your exposure.
Avalanche Danger
Saturday, December 9, 2023
Sunday, December 10, 2023
- Above Treeline2 - Moderate
- Near Treeline2 - Moderate
- Below Treeline2 - Moderate
1 - Low | 2 - Moderate | 3 - Considerable | 4 - High | 5 - Extreme | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travel Advice | Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. | Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern. | Dangerous avalanche conditions. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making essential. | Very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain not recommended. | Extraordinarily dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid all avalanche terrain. |
| Likelihood of Avalanches | Natural and human-triggered avalanches unlikely. | Natural avalanches unlikely; human-triggered avalanches possible. | Natural avalanches possible; human-triggered avalanches likely. | Natural avalanches likely; human-triggered avalanches very likely. | Natural and human-triggered avalanches certain. |
| Avalanche Size and Distribution | Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain. | Small avalanches in specific areas; or large avalanches in isolated areas. | Small avalanches in many areas; or large avalanches in specific areas; or very large avalanches in isolated areas. | Large avalanches in many areas; or very large avalanches in specific areas. | Very large avalanches in many areas. |
Avalanche Problems (2)
Problem #1: Wind Slab
Problem Type
Aspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size

Visible wind slab clues that include drifting snow, rougher wind scoured areas and smoother wind slab deposit areas. Elephants Back, Carson Pass, CA Photo: SAC
Photo: SACWind slabs still exist on slopes where wind-blown snow piled up over the last few days. Some of these wind slabs may remain unstable, especially if they exist on top of old, weak snow. While the NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects should still hold more widespread wind slabs, some wind slabs could also exist on other aspects due to yesterday's NE winds. These winds may have helped make existing wind slabs more dense as well. Expect a mix of wind-loaded and wind-scoured conditions in near and above treeline terrain.
Cornices above a slope, wind drifts, wind-sculpted surface snow, and wind-scoured areas can all help identify where potentially unstable wind slabs may exist. Using this information to plan a route around the wind slabs can help limit your exposure and may lead to more consistent snow conditions.
Problem #2: Persistent Slab
Problem Type
Aspect/Elevation
Likelihood
Size

(12/7/2023)
New snow has accumulated above the old snow which is weakest on sheltered NW-N-NE aspects. Tamarack Peak, NV Photo: SAC
Old, weak, sugary snow (facets) exists below the recent snow on many NW-N-NE aspects. The exact structure and weakness of the snowpack varies widely by location and elevation. Wind-affected snow or consolidated new snow could provide enough of a slab to complete the ingredients for a persistent slab avalanche. People could still trigger persistent slab avalanches that fail on any of the numerous weak layers today, especially in areas where more cohesive snow rests on the weak layer.
Sometimes, clues like recent avalanches, snow surface cracking, snowpack collapse, or whumpfing sounds help alert people to unstable persistent slabs. Other times, triggering an avalanche represents the first clue that a slope remains unstable. Remember that previous NE wind events may have scoured weak snow out of the upper portion of a slope, laying a trap of weak snow on the lower half of the slope that is just waiting for a trigger. If a persistent slab avalanche does occur, it could break wider than expected or be triggered low on the slope.
Use low-angle, non-avalanche terrain not connected to steeper areas above or beside it if you see signs of instability. If you doubt whether the weak layer exists, play it safe and assume the snowpack is unstable. As an added benefit, controlling your speed and avoiding the barely covered obstacles on lower-angle slopes is often easier.
Forecast Discussion
More on the persistent slab problem: In most areas, the weak faceted (sugary) snowpack exists above about 8,000', but could be encountered as low as 7,200' in isolated locations. Look for an easy to miss thin layer of faceted snow on top of the uppermost rain crust in the snowpack (photo below). As elevation increases expect to find layers of faceted snow in between rain crusts. Above about 8,500' or so, rain crusts disappear and the snowpack becomes nearly all weak faceted snow. Generally speaking, the higher up you go on wind protected NW-N-NE aspects, the weaker the snowpack.
There is still the potential to hit many obstacles (rocks, logs, open water, bushes, etc.) that are barely covered (or not) by the shallow snowpack. Areas with a supportable mid snowpack rain crust in the 7,500’ to 8,500’ elevation range provide the most usable snowpack. Anticipate encountering a different snowpack structure and a different set of travel conditions if you are moving from one place to another around the forecast area.
Media
Mountain Weather
- Issued
- Saturday, December 9, 2023 - 7:00AM
- Author
- Andy Anderson
Expect clear nights and sunny days through the weekend. Daytime highs should climb into the mid-40s above 7000 ft by tomorrow. Some cold air pooled in the lower elevation areas and alpine valleys last night, setting up inversion conditions. Still, most upper elevation sensors remained in the teens and 20s, with some reporting temps in the 30s at 5 am. The winds have decreased since yesterday, but some NW winds with gusts strong enough to move snow at times could continue along the Sierra ridges today.
| Central Sierra Nevada | Conditions in the last 24hrs | Weather Forecast for Today Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS | Weather Forecast for Tonight Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS | Weather Forecast for Tomorrow Produced in partnership with the Reno NWS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weather | Mostly clear | Sunny. Chance of precipitation is 0%. | Partly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 0%. | Mostly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 0%. |
| Temperatures 7000 to 8000 ft. | @ 5am: 16 to 24 ° F | Max: 30 to 39 ° F | 38 to 44. ° F | 26 to 32. ° F | 45 to 51. ° F |
| Temperatures 8000 to 9000 ft. | @ 5am: 17 to 31 ° F | Max: 22 to 35 ° F | 35 to 41. ° F | 26 to 31. ° F | 41 to 47. ° F |
| Mid Slope Winds | E and NE @ 0 to 15 mph with a few gusts between 20 and 25 mph | Light winds. | Light winds. | Light winds. |
| Ridgetop Winds | NE @ 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 34 mph | Northwest around 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. | West around 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph. | West 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. |
| Snowfall 7000 to 8000 ft. | none | No accumulation. | SWE = None. | No accumulation. | SWE = None. | No accumulation. | SWE = None. |
| Snowfall 8000 to 9000 ft. | none | No accumulation. | SWE = None. | No accumulation. | SWE = None. | No accumulation. | SWE = None. |
| Total Snow Depth between 8200 and 8700 ft. | 9 to 25 inches |
This information is provided by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service and describes general backcountry avalanche hazard and conditions.
It does not apply to ski areas and highways where avalanche mitigation is conducted.

